[LE CLERC, Jean], Bonheur et malheur en matière de loteries, 1696

First edition.
Jean Le Clerc (1657-1736) was a Protestant theologian and pastor. He was a member of the Remontrants, disciples of Arminius, breaking with Calvinism on questions of grace and predestination. The lottery and games of chance, then very popular in the Netherlands, were an ideal subject for reflection on these subjects. By rejecting any idea of an "invisible hand" behind chance or good fortune, he ends up with an ultimately very modern definition of chance:
"Tous ces mots ne sont que des termes négatifs, comme je l'ai dit, & qui ne servent qu'à faire comprendre que l'effet, dont on parle, n'est pas la production d'une cause nécessaire & déterminée à la produire".
In other words, we speak of chance where we do not know the sum of the causes that determine the effect that we observe.